The commercial MBS pipeline hasn’t looked like this since 2007, according to Commercial Mortgage Alert. Scheduled to hit the U.S. market by the end of next month are 17 transactions totaling $12.5 billion; this is on top of the $13.5 billion of offerings that have already priced since the beginning of the year, according to a survey by CMA. The explosion of activity puts issuance on track to reach $26 billion for the first quarter, more than four times higher than a year ago and the highest three-month total since the fourth quarter of 2007. The volume is much heavier than expected. At the beginning of the year, a panel of bond pros predicted that 2013 issuance would reach $65 billion, but the market is now on a $100-billion pace. While few think issuance will continue at the current rate throughout the year, many have raised their expectations.
There are already 11 transactions totaling $11.4 billion in the queue for April through June — almost matching the $12.4-billion level in last year’s second quarter. Multiple other deals are expected to be added. All told, 28 deals totaling $23.8 billion are in the pipeline. The breakdown is 14 multi-borrower transactions totaling $16.9 billion, 13 single-borrower offerings totaling $6.7 billion and a $250-million offering backed by distressed loans.